Newcastle University appointed Ortus Economic Research, working with New Skills Consulting and Cloud Chamber, to undertake an early-stage social, economic and policy impact assessment of the proposed Campus for Ageing and Vitality (CAV). CAV is an ambitious, large-scale, multi-faceted capital development centred on the redevelopment of a major brownfield site in Newcastle, integrating university research facilities, an Integrated Health Hub, specialist care and later living accommodation, residential development, commercial space, community facilities and sustainable connectivity. Its overarching purpose is to support longer, healthier lives while strengthening Newcastle’s position in ageing research, health innovation and inclusive economic growth.
The study began with a detailed review of the CAV vision, masterplan, emerging development proposals, partner documentation and relevant national, regional and local policy frameworks. Consultation was undertaken with Newcastle University, NHS partners, Newcastle City Council and advisers involved in developing the CAV masterplan. This informed the development of an evaluation framework and logic model, mapping the project’s investment and activities to anticipated impacts across health, wealth, wellbeing, research and innovation, workforce development, regeneration, community engagement and net zero carbon.
The assessment required the implementation of complex, bespoke impact modelling appropriate to a major mixed-use capital investment. Construction phase impacts were modelled over a five-year development period, based on an assumed £250 million construction investment. Operational impacts were assessed over a 25-year period using alternative development scenarios, floorspace estimates, employment densities, sector-specific multipliers, GVA per worker data, wage assumptions, discounting and adjustments for displacement and substitution. This estimated the potential contribution of the development in terms of construction job years, operational jobs, additional GVA and staff incomes.
A separate research impact model was developed to assess the health and economic benefits arising from future ageing and healthcare research activity on the campus. This incorporated assumptions relating to research investment, leverage, attribution, time lags, health benefits, private R&D investment and benefit-cost ratios, alongside a worked assessment of potential dementia care cost savings.
The final report provided Newcastle University with an evidence base to inform project development, stakeholder engagement, funding applications and investment discussions. It demonstrated that Ortus can design and implement rigorous, Green Book-aligned impact assessment approaches for complex capital investments combining physical regeneration, health provision, research infrastructure, housing, innovation and long-term economic development outcomes.